POKER HAND OF THE WEEK

World Poker Finals 1: Irrational Fear of a Spade (10/31/04)

In this entry, and the following two, I will describe some very interesting hands that came up when I played in the $500+65 no limit hold 'em event at the World Poker Finals at Foxwoods. Although I didn't cash in this event, I played well and had a lot of fun.

I'm not sure about the level of all the players in the tournament, but I know that I had some tough ones at my table. The player two to my left was an experienced pro who claimed to have made final tables in some big events. I had never heard of him before, but from what I saw of his play, I believed him. The guy seemed to be able to read people and made some great calls. His friend was seated immediately to my left. This guy may or may not have been a pro, but he certainly was an aggressive player. All of my key hands involved this guy, who I will hereafter refer to as Mr. Aggressive.

In the first hand I'd like to share with you, the blinds were 25-50, and I was in early position with JspadesJspades. I limped, Mr. Aggressive limped, and everyone else folded to the big blind, who checked. The flop was Jspades9spades4spades, giving me the top set. This was almost definitely the best hand at the time, but it could have easily turned into the worst hand. The big blind checked, and I checked behind him. I was setting up some kind of play, but I wasn't sure how it would go yet. Mr. Aggressive bet 150, and the big blind folded.

I got a bet, which was good. Next I had to figure out what to do with it. I thought for just a second, and then raised it up to 400. Mr. Aggressive folded, and I picked up the pot. But as I was raking it in, I realized that a call would have been a much better play. I check-raised because I was scared of another spade, but in retrospect this seems kind of crazy. For one thing, another spade was not likely to come, even if the hand went all the way to the river. And secondly, if a spade did come, I could just throw away my set, and I wouldn't have lost much on the hand.

In a no limit hold 'em tourney, you can't play with fear. This is especially true when playing against tough competition. After this hand, I decided that I was going to play to win chips, and not just to keep the chips I had. This would require taking my game to a higher level.



World Poker Finals 2: A Brilliant Bluff (10/31/04)

A little later in the tourney, this very exciting hand came up. The blinds were 50-75, and I was on the button with Kspades8spades. Everyone folded to me. I decided to go for a blind steal, so I raised to 200 (probably too small). The small blind (Mr. Aggressive) called, and the big blind folded. It wasn't the ideal scenario for me, but you gotta take what life gives you.

Then, before the flop came, Mr. Aggressive checked in the dark. Now, I don't know much about this technique. I vaguely remember reading that it is a good thing to do with a low or mid pocket pair, but I don't know why. Anyway, the flop came QspadesJspades6spades, and I had to decide what to do. I went for the check.

The turn brought a 4spades, and Mr. Aggressive threw in a bet of 450. Now I knew that Mr. Aggressive was aggressive, and I figured he was also a pretty solid player. I had 1200 left, and I started thinking about what he would need to have to call a reraise all-in. Unless he could sniff out my bluff, he would probably need a pair of queens or better. From what had happened so far, I thought he probably didn't have the goods. What's more, I didn't think that he thought I was capable of making this kind of play, as it is fairly sophisticated, and I certainly did not have a sophisticated table image at that point. (Also, with no obvious draws on the board, there was no stench of a semibluff.) So I went for it. I reraised all-in on a stone cold bluff!

He made me sweat for a while, and I tried to act natural. (Natural for me happens to be a pained facial expression, which is convenient.) Finally, after a couple of minutes, he folded. I really wanted to show the bluff, but I figured it would draw way too much attention to me, so I didn't.

I am really proud of this play because it required both brains and guts. Without both of these working together, successful bluffing is just not possible.



World Poker Finals 3: Time to Gamble (10/31/04)

I will now describe the hand that crippled me. I guess I should say that it was I that crippled myself, and not the hand. However, after analyzing the hand, I don't think I really made a mistake. I just took a big gamble to double up, and it didn't pay off.

I was on the button with JspadesQspades, and everyone folded to me. The blinds were 50-100, and I decided to make it 300 to go. Mr. Aggressive reraised all-in to 1400 from the small blind, and the big blind folded. So there was 1800 in the pot, and I needed to put in another 1100 if I wanted to call. This was almost my entire stack, so it was a tough call to make.

It usually requires a really strong pocket hand to call a big all-in bet, so why would I even consider calling with what I had? Well, there are a few reasons. Since the reraiser was so aggressive, there was a wider range of hands he could be pushing with than usual. Also, the pot was giving me slightly better than a 3-2 payout for my bet. Now, there is an ongoing debate about how much attention should be paid to pot odds in a tournament setting. Sklansky, Raymer, and others have had some interesting things to say about this. The bottom line for me was that I was up against tough competition, and I felt an urgency to get some more chips to work with. So I was looking to take any +EV bet that came along, and hope that luck was on my side.

Given that I was willing to gamble, I needed to decide if this was indeed a +EV gamble. Remember that I said I was getting 3-2 on the call. This means that I needed to be better than a 3-2 underdog to win the hand. It turns out that JspadesQspades is better than or equal to 3-2 against a lot of hands, including 99, AT, and AK. It is obviously in trouble against JJ, QQ, KK, or AA, but I had a feeling that he would be more likely to call with these hands. I felt that the only ones I really had to worry about were KJ, KQ, AJ, and AQ. If he had one of those four hands, I would be about a 7-3 underdog. So as long as the probability of him having one of those was not too high, my call would be +EV. In fact, I later calculated that the probability needed to be lower than 40%, which seems reasonable to assume.

So I made the call. As crazy as it seems, I ended up with almost all of my chips in the pot preflop with JQ! He turned up 9spades9spades, and we had a race. Unfortunately, no J or Q came, and my stack was devastated. But I hope I was at least able to convince you that my call was not as ridiculous as it may have appeared to an onlooker.



Taking Chances With a Set (10/25/04)

This week's game was no limit Texas hold 'em, my favorite. There were 13 people, with the top 3 getting paid. I feel that I played pretty well, but I busted out sixth on a fairly mundane preflop coinflip hand. I'd like to talk about a different hand that occurred earlier. It's a hand that I didn't totally screw up, but probably could have played better.

We were nine handed, and the blinds were 150-300. I had a reasonably healthy stack of about 3300 in chips. I was on the big blind, looking down at 6spades6spades. Yuandong limped in from middle position, and it was folded to me. I checked. The flop came 6spades7spades2spades, and I had a sweet set. Now I just had to decide how to play it.

With no raise before the flop, it was tough to put Yuandong on a hand. He is capable of limping with a small pair, any ace, and maybe any two face cards. I figured that if I bet at this flop, he would most likely fold. I wanted to give him a chance to catch up so I could get a little more money out of him.

Now, there is obviously some risk in slowplaying a set. Your opponent can draw out to a straight or flush, or if they are sophisticated and daring they can represent a straight or flush. I ruled out the second possibility because I have never seen Yuandong do any funky bluffing. (I will also ignore the possibility of drawing to a full house to beat your opponent's straight or flush, because it is unlikely, and with the stacks being so shallow, the implied odds don't play a significant role in the analysis.)

Thus, the only thing I had to worry about was him actually drawing out on me, which I saw as very unlikely given his somewhat random pocket cards. The event that I considered much more likely was him hitting a high pair or maybe even two pair, in which case I would get paid off nicely. He could also end up with trips, in which case I would have a full house.

So I checked, and he checked behind me. The turn was a 9spades. Now, if he didn't already have a straight or a flush, there was a good chance that he was one card away. As with last week's hand, I didn't think the turn through enough. I probably should have made a bet here to make him pay to draw, but I didn't. I checked, and he checked again.

The river was a 4spades. At this point, it made sense to bet. Since I was representing nothing the whole time, it was likely that he would call a small bet with almost nothing. (I've seen him make questionable calls with ace high before. He had a large stack this time, which makes him even more likely to make a loose call.) If he reraises me, I've got a tough decision to make, but I don't feel that it is going to happen. I put in a bet of 300, which was a little under half the pot. He called, and flipped up Aspades8spades.

I won the pot, but it was definitely a risky play. Did I get greedy here? You decide.



Setting Up a River Bluff (10/21/04)

We were playing OHH, which is a round of Omaha followed by two rounds of hold 'em, all pot limit. We had just finished the first round of Omaha and were ten-handed going into hold 'em. The blinds were 75-150, and most stacks were still fairly deep relative to this. I was on the big blind with Kspades Qspades. Charles limped in, and I think the small blind (I forget who) limped in. I checked.

The flop came Tspades 4spades Tspades. The small blind checked, and I checked. Charles then put in a bet of 300. The small blind folded. I figured Charles didn't have a T and was just trying to take the pot down right there. Since it was Charles I was up against, and since I had two overcards, and since the flop had two tens and two spades, I called. Charles seems very capable of laying down hands, so I figured I would be able to win by either hitting something or bluffing later if the right cards showed up.

The turn brought a low spade. I checked, figuring that if Charles bet I might represent a T or a flush with a check-raise. My mistake here was not stopping to think about what Charles might have if he bet on the flop and then again on the turn. What might he have? Maybe he would bet a medium pocket pair, thinking that I had hit a pair of fours? Heck, maybe he would even have a flush at that point. It's hard to tell. Oh well, it didn't really matter because he just checked.

The river brought another spade. At this point, I saw no evidence that Charles held a spade. Maybe I should have, but I didn't. And if he did have a spade, it could be a low one. So I put out a bet of 500 on a bluff. Maybe I should have bet more, but I didn't want him to smell anything fishy (and then there is the benefit of losing less if he does call). He called, showed me a 7spades, and asked how high my spade was. I flipped over my cards, looking like a fool. I didn't ask to see his other card (I should have), but I assume it was a 7.

Although I looked silly in the end, I don't feel that I misplayed the hand too badly. I just wish I had thought things over a little more along the way. (I have to admit that since this was the first hold 'em hand after Omaha, I was a little disoriented. I need to get more experience with mixed games!) I also think that Charles's call on the river made sense, given the size of my bet relative to the size of the pot. I was a little disappointed that I lost chips on this hand, but the fact that it was such an interesting one made up for the disappointment!